Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 22.143454 26.533790 31.346134 36.984130 43.378899 50.377437 58.585694
2025-09-28 14.626835 20.104917 26.731027 35.211341 45.644246 57.925889 73.333039
2025-10-05 11.549716 17.657300 25.613891 36.465751 50.586368 68.034820 90.891834
2025-10-12 9.360797 15.732794 24.587127 37.325172 54.673038 76.947081 107.117927
2025-10-19 7.707775 14.153131 23.653428 37.982021 58.278204 85.193936 122.675408
2025-10-26 6.519595 13.000905 23.082795 38.940015 62.180319 93.859943 139.010397
2025-11-02 5.272101 11.482322 21.702761 38.479836 63.918080 99.540726 151.460757
2025-11-09 4.402567 10.422311 20.860159 38.667529 66.490729 106.376304 165.637436
2025-11-16 3.616107 9.338497 19.804189 38.358090 68.210528 111.980583 178.212928
2025-11-23 2.872919 8.161330 18.401917 37.299452 68.631623 115.627707 188.049899
2025-11-30 2.517591 7.718353 18.249604 38.288358 72.270606 124.108116 205.067257
2025-12-07 2.039483 6.875353 17.216147 37.624679 73.161713 128.440122 216.109949
2025-12-14 1.747378 6.438446 16.982413 38.482792 76.801881 137.427563 234.857947
2025-12-21 1.286186 5.411253 15.378064 36.660585 75.833455 139.263904 243.042798
2025-12-28 1.125287 5.172780 15.421912 37.955146 80.269093 149.767912 264.719858
2026-01-04 0.963285 4.872596 15.273908 38.841635 84.010869 159.272995 285.123343
2026-01-11 0.815236 4.559857 15.040993 39.519057 87.390342 168.285903 305.000672
2026-01-18 0.703391 4.329554 14.968000 40.506910 91.367122 178.397357 326.867574
2026-01-25 0.553244 3.875906 14.244781 40.032409 92.581164 183.925107 341.587830
2026-02-01 0.452311 3.570559 13.852781 40.225948 95.039386 191.602814 359.930268
2026-02-08 0.355389 3.219796 13.263645 39.906867 96.469615 197.544374 375.588431
2026-02-15 0.260892 2.801972 12.385308 38.815110 96.296415 200.673386 386.696699
2026-02-22 0.224200 2.686512 12.401708 39.834960 100.367449 211.335934 410.475253